2019-10-22: Release of population and growth document
The October 22, 2019 council agenda contains two pages first presented in a closed council meeting held on September 10, 2019. The full two pages can be accessed here.
The city’s ‘official’ current growth ‘target’ to the year 2041 is 50,000 people. Below are some excerpts from the two released pages, with a brief comment at the end. This document illustrates how the official numbers may be significantly off-track.
“Based on BC Stats data, the current (2018) population of Port Moody is estimated at about 36,000, which is a 7.1% (2,400 people) increase from 2011.”
“In Table 2, Port Moody’s approved projects, applications in progress, and potential development areas are listed to illustrate the possible population and dwelling unit increases through the municipality over the next 20-25 years. It should be noted that the population and dwelling unit targets for the potential development areas are estimates with expected 20-25 year timelines for complete build-out. These estimates may be affected by many factors, notably future market conditions, and they could be higher or lower than anticipated at this point. For the Moody Centre TOD Area and Coronation Park, the dwelling units and population listed in the table were derived from densities that were explored on a preliminary basis during the OCP amendment processes for the two areas; however, they are not enshrined in OCP policy for either area and require a more detailed level of planning to arrive at more accurate estimates.”
“These population and dwelling unit estimates would result in Port Moody possibly achieving the following totals within 20 – 25 years (i.e, 2038 to 2043);
- Total population of 57,000 (36,000 in 2018 plus the projected 21,000 – rounded), which is an average annual increase of between 840 (2.3%) and 1,050 (2.9%) people.
- Total dwelling units of 23,400 (13,000 in 2018 plus the projected 10,400 – rounded), which is an average annual increase of between 415 (4.0%) and 520 (5.0%) units.”
The numbers are very speculative and highlight the need for council and staff to measure and track whether the city is on — or off — track in terms of community goals.
For example, in the “Potential Development Areas” in Table 2 above, the population estimate for the Moody Centre Transit-Oriented Development area is 4,000. That is a number well above the “Scenario A” estimate of 3,339 (from OCP public hearing in November 2017); and well below the number projected by the current TOD consortium preliminary master plan (estimate ~7,500 population based on 3,755 residential units).
This estimate range from low to high is greater than 4,000 people for just one specific area.
With the Official Community Plan (OCP) now under it’s next review, it’s critical for city council and staff to use best practices for tracking and measurement so planning decisions aren’t made in a knowledge vacuum.
Recent related posts, MC TOD:
- 2019-10-30: Moody Centre TOD Area Master Plan, public open houses
- 2019-09-27: Moody Centre TOD stakeholder workshops, preliminary plan
- Moody Centre TOD mystery: What’s the plan?
The Moody Centre Community Association (MCCA) welcomes your comments.